2017 Santa Ynez Valley Real Estate Market And What about 2018?

It's already 2018. Where did 2017 go? Before discussing the forecast for Santa Ynez Valley (SYV) real estate in 2018, let's take a look at the real estate market results at for the Valley in 2017. The month of December performed well, the 4th quarter performed well, and it was a good year for SYV real estate. The market should stay on course barring any global catastrophes.

In December, sales of single family residences in the SYV increased to 23 units sold from 16 units sold in December 2016, up 43.8%. The median price increased 6.7% from $740,540 to $790,000 while the average sales price increased 6.5% from $843,072 to $898,256. As a further sign of strength, the average days on the market (DOM) decreased significantly, from 238 days to 81 days, down 66%. Not only were sale and prices up, homes were selling quicker than the previous December.

In the 4th quarter, sales in the Valley increased from 65units in 2016 to 75 units in 2017, up 15.4%. The median price increased 11.4% from $660,000 to $735,000 while the average sales price increased 11.0% from $841,039 to $933,638. The DOM confirmed the broad market strength in the SYV market during this time period. The DOM had similar improvement with a decrease from 155 days to 105 days, down 32.3%.

SYV Association of Realtors recorded 328 single family residences sold in 2017 compared to 289 units sold in 2016, an increase of 13.5%. The SYV median price in 2017 was up 6.2% from 2016. It increased from $697,000 to $740,500. The average sales price for the year was up 3.8% from $992,763 in 2016 to $1,030,296 in 2017. The DOM decreased 5.9% in 2017 from 153 days in 2016 to 144 days .

December, the 4th quarter, and the year; all of these time periods reported positive numbers in each category. It was a very healthy year for Santa Ynez Valley real estate. According to the California Association of Realtors (CAR) prediction for California, dated October 12, 2017; sales were going to end the year up 1.3% and the median sales price was going to end being up 7.2%. The SYV did better in sales, up 13.5%. and was reasonably close on median price, up 6.2%. The 12% difference in sales may appear extreme but is an acceptable variation in a small market as is the Valley.  The SYV 2017 real estate market performed comparably with the rest of the California real estate market.

CAR also provided their forecast for 2018 in October 2017. CAR forecasted that the state's existing home sales would be up 1.0% and that the median price will increase by 4.2% in 2018. The Santa Ynez Valley should see similar numbers, but this forecast did not account for the Federal tax reform that was passed in December 2017. Most taxpayers are concerned how this reform is going to effect their pocketbook. The limitations on the mortgage interest deduction, the state tax deduction, and property tax deduction are not going to be a large enough burden to stop a robust economy as the mortgage meltdown did back in 2007. Current economic indicators and the recent performance of the stock market suggest that America is in a robust economic period. If any forecasts need adjusting, CAR may need to adjust their numbers upward, not downward. 2017 was a good year for the Santa Ynez Valley real estate market and 2018 appears to have economic factors that will create more growth, similar to 2017.

Happy New Year,

Rodney Smeester

Realtor®

BRE # 01925202

805 453-6000

There have been no caravans for the past two weeks. Next week will get back to the regular caravan schedule. In the mean time, please contact me if you have any questions, if you would like to see any homes, or if you would like to receive a free market analysis of your home.

For more information, please visit us at Central Coast Landmark Properties.

Our Christmas Gift: The Final Tax Reform Package

Is the new tax package congress' Christmas gift to us? Compared to what it could have been, I would say yes. Two items of major concern did not make it unscathed through the reconciliation process in congress. The mortgage interest deduction was proposed to be limited from the current limits of $1.1M to $500k. The compromise only limited the deduction to interest on mortgages up to $750k with existing mortgages as of December 15th being limited to interest on $1M. The other item that did not make it to the final bill was the time period on the capital gains exclusion of up to $500k for married couples and $250k for single filers. The proposed legislation was going to change the requirement of the home being a primary residence to five out of the previous eight years. This change was dropped. The vesting period for the capital gains exclusion on a primary residence is staying at two out of the last five years. California home owners should breathe a sigh of relief. The two important changes with respect to real estate were not as drastic as initially proposed.

The mortgage interest deduction ended up not changing much. The new $750k limit is high enough for most California entry level home buyers to take advantage of the deduction. With regard to the capital gains tax exclusion on the sale of the primary residence, not increasing the vesting requirements is important to all people that are mobile. Millennials had the most to lose if this tax break had changed as proposed. They are the most mobile. Twenty and thirty somethings tend to go where the job opportunities take them. It will be easier to take their gains and move into another home within a 2-5 year period. That ability to move and put all their gains towards another home would have been affected if that change had been passed.

Taxes and tax reform are complex issues. There is no way to make everybody happy. When it comes to taxes, why is anybody happy? Only two real estate related items out of this major tax reform are addressed here. Tax accountants can and will spend the rest of their lives discussing the details of the entire package. Even though the tax package is disliked by most people, the stock market appears to be reacting positively to it being passed. This should lead to a strong economy. A strong economy is all that is needed to strengthen the California real estate market. Let's get ready for a hot new year, but for now:

RodneySmeester
RealtorⓇ
BRE # 01925202
805 453 6000

The December 19th caravan in Santa Ynez Valley had three notable properties to preview. The first home is located at 1978 Honey Locust Court in Solvang. The home is a 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,200 s.f. home. It is listed at $699,000. The second property is in Santa Ynez at 778 North Refugio Road. It is a 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,963 s.f. home on .82 acres. The property has a pool, an artist's studio, and a 2 bedroom guest house. It is listed at $1,500,000.

The last property to mention on caravan is 3200 & 3201 Caballo Road in Santa Ynez. The 4,600 s.f. home has 5 bedrooms and 4.5 baths. The 20 acre property has tremendous views, a pool, and a second legal residence. It is listed at $3,290,000.

Please contact me if you have any questions, if you would like to see any homes, or if you would like to receive a free market analysis of your home.

For more information, please visit us at Central Coast Landmark Properties.

Our Christmas Gift, Tax Reform

Since when is hurting us not as completely as they would like, a Christmas gift? Politicians dwell in an alternate reality. Taking my hard earned money and telling me they are doing me a favor because it is not as much as it could be, is difficult to swallow. All of us are still going to be paying taxes. Only the triggers that determine taxes due are changing. Some of us will be paying less and some of us will be paying more. Hopefully, most of us will be paying less. Who will truly benefit from this reform?

The government will benefit, of course! Some analysts believe the tax receipts will decrease because tax rates will decrease. That is if finance, taxes, and the economy were a zero sum game, then tax receipts would definitely decrease. Our economy is not a zero sum game. If there is more money available for taxpayers to spend, the economy will grow, increasing tax receipts. Judging on recent stock market and holiday sales performances, we appear to be starting a period of economic growth. The government will get their money from the subsequent increased tax receipts.

The general population will benefit from the robust economy. Some of us will benefit more than others. What should we do to get the best benefit from a growth period? Real estate is normally a good bet. Some are concerned with this since the government is limiting the tax incentive to purchase a home, the mortgage interest deduction. Looking a bit deeper into tax reform's effect on real estate provides a different scenario. People need a place to live even if they are not buying a home. Demand will not be changing. Just who owns them might be changing or better yet, why people are owning homes might be changing slightly.

Owning a home and paying a fixed mortgage for the next 30 years is estimated to be about one third the cost of renting, including inflation, for the next 30 years. This incentive alone should be enough to keep real estate going strong. If it is not, taxpayers will use our imaginations to make the best of the situation. The first time home buyer can still take advantage of the mortgage interest deduction by owning the home as a rental rather than their primary residence. The first time home buyer would be purchasing as an investment and be a landlord initially while being a tenant elsewhere. This possible solution might sound extreme, but when adding in depreciation on the rental, that might be the only way to get significant deductions beyond the standard deduction on individual tax returns. Taxpayers will be creative and use the tax code as efficiently as possible. We will find out eventually.

Even when limiting the mortgage interest deduction as a tax incentive, real estate will still be an attractive investment that provides financial benefits along with the stability of owning a home. It is still the solid investment real estate has always been. With the economic potential this current tax reform package offers, there is a great opportunity to benefit from owning real estate for the savvy investor. When the politicians speak of the tax reform package as a Christmas gift, they are speaking about the lower of taxes for some of us. Not all of us see that as a gift. The true gift for all of us is the boost to the economy and the opportunity booming economy creates.

The opportunity is now. If you are interested in buying or selling real estate or have any questions, contact me. I'd be glad to help.

RodneySmeester
RealtorⓇ
BRE # 01925202
805 453 6000

The December 12th caravan in Santa Ynez Valley had two properties to preview. The first home is located at 742 Hillside Drive in Solvang. The home is a 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,000 s.f. condominium with mountain views. A tennis court, pool, and spa are included in the association amenities. The home is listed at $550,000. The second property is in Solvang at 922 College Canyon Road. It is a 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,791 s.f. home on half an acre. The property is listed at $899,000.

One property that was not on caravan, but still available, is 1145 Arroyo Mesa Road in Solvang. It is a 62 acre property with a barn and an apartment in the Ballard Canyon AVA. It has a nice location to build an estate home with spectacular views and plenty of sloping hills for grapes. The property is listed at $2,395,000.

Please contact me if you have any questions, if you would like to see any homes, or if you would like to receive a free market analysis of your home.

For more information, please visit us at Central Coast Landmark Properties.

What Will the Tax Overhaul Mean to You?

Why does tax reform concern someone involved in a discussion on real estate? Taxes, the economy, and real estate are intertwined. I have been writing for weeks about how minimizing the mortgage interest deduction (MID) will hurt the real estate industry. If we only focus on this deduction, it is a big deal. Let's look at if from a larger perspective. The MID is only plays a minor role in real estate. The economy is truly the decisive factor. Taking away tax incentives such as the MID can influence real estate, but will not contradict, the overall economic trends.

Tax reform, is it taking away tax incentives? Or is it closing loop holes? The media and politicians are misleading us when this term is used. Tax loop holes are an unintended way around owing a tax. The mortgage interest deduction is an incentive for the purchase of real property. There is nothing unintended about the MID. It is in our tax code to provide an incentive to purchase real estate and become a homeowner. Our leaders and media must provide us with balanced information rather than skewing language for their own purpose. With tax reform limiting the benefit of the MID, the government is taking away a tax incentive. It is not closing a loop hole.

If we just focus on losing the benefit of the MID, we miss the big pictures. Losing this tax incentive is difficult for homeowners to accept after being able to use it for all of these years, but a strong economy will make this change irrelevant. This loss might lead to a very short term correction, on the order of a few months, but it is not enough to turn a strong economic market downward. Currently, the stock market is around 24,000 and the early holiday season sales numbers are up big. The economy appears to be taking off despite the currently proposed tax reform package. Even if we completely lose our MID, real estate will still appreciate during a period of economic growth. A robust economy will outweigh the disadvantage of a limited MID.

The media and the real estate industry have focused on this tax reform package limiting the benefit of the MID. In a heated economy, this loss will be of little consequence to real estate. One of the changes of concern that the media is paying little to no attention to is the change in the capital gains exclusion when selling the primary residence. The current exclusion for a married couple is $500k if the property has been a primary residence for two out of the last five years and $250k for single individuals. The current proposal increases the vesting period to five out of eight years. This does not seem like a major change especially when the average time period for living in a home has increased from seven to eleven years, but it might be in five years.

This change has more relevance when we break it down to demographics. The younger the group, the shorter they stay in one location. Millennials only average four years before moving on. This is a problem to people who are moving from job to job or getting transferred after three years. Under the current tax system, gains of up to $500k for married couples/$250k for singles are tax free. Under the newly proposed system, these families and individuals will be paying capital gains taxes on any appreciation if the time period is less than five years. The government will take away part of money that many use as the down payment for their next home.This change is likely to be a factor that slows down entry level home owners from selling and moving up three and four years from now because they will not be able to use all of their gains to buy upward. This might end up being insignificant, but it seems that it will be a factor that could effect the middle of the real estate market in five years.

This vesting change to the primary residence exclusion will not effect real estate or the economy before that time, if then. For now, our economy and real estate appear to be starting another period of growth. The current uncertainty many people have due to the currently proposed tax reform make this period the perfect time to be buying and selling real estate. Whether it is to sell in order to buy into a more desirable location or to buy as a first time home buyer, now is a great time to do it so that you are in front of the economic growth period.

RodneySmeester
RealtorⓇ
BRE # 01925202
805 453 6000

The December 5th caravan in Santa Ynez Valley had three notable properties to preview. The first home at 856 Adobe Creek Road in Solvang is an almost 3 acre property with 3 bed/2 baths and tremendous views. The home is listed at $1,675,000. The second notable property is in Solvang at 2698 Quail Valley Road. It is a 4 bed/3 bath home on 1.11 acres. The property is listed at $1,325,000. The final property, at 4145 Roblar Avenue in Santa Ynez, is a 26+ acre parcel with a 4 bed/3 bath 5,400 s.f. home. It is listed at $6,600,000. Other attributes include approximately 16.5 acres of Syrah grapes, a pool, and spectacular views facing south over the Santa Ynez Valley.

Please contact me if you have any questions, if would like to see any homes, or if you would like to receive a free market analysis of your home.

For more information, please visit us at Central Coast Landmark Properties.

The Mortgage Interest Deduction Effect on California Real Estate

Tax reform is this holiday season's hot topic. The MID and real estate are much like conjoined twins. Taking away the MID could be a killer to California real estate.

The proposed cutback to the mortgage interest deduction (MID) scares me. My concerns start with the effect on real estate, not just in the Santa Ynez Valley, but in the state of California and potentially throughout the nation. Paring back the MID from interest on $1.1M to interest on $500k while increasing the standard deduction, eliminates the financial incentive to purchase a home. The tax benefit to buy a home worth $300k is gone. The standard deduction will provide a lower tax basis. That price point is common throughout the country, not so much in California, though. The purchase of a $600k home which is common n California, will provide only a minimal tax benefit.The incentive to buy an entry level home in California is diminishing. Homeowners wanting to move up are truly losing out. They will have no improvement in tax benefits when moving up to a home with a $1M loan. It appears that incentives to purchase a home are disappearing. If the tax reform allows for the standard deduction to adjust for cost of living increases, the benefit of the MID could completely disappear in ten years.

If these assumptions are right, it appears that the rate of home ownership will go down. This translates to less people having skin in the game. That means less people having a financial commitment to our social structure. This could be another facet for social unrest.

Bear with me on the explanation why this isn't going to happen. If this were a zero-sum game, these changes to the tax code would generate a significant hit to the value of real estate and create significant social effects. Focusing on economics, taking away the incentives will cut the demand. To add balance to the supply side of the equation, prices will decrease. Furthermore, the housing affordability index in California has dropped to 28%. Few people can afford to buy a home in California even before this tax reform is implemented.

Is the sky falling? I truly believe everything I've stated here, but... What is going on with our stock market? It's going through the roof. Is that the sign of a bubble? I don't think so. These increases in the stock exchanges are based on the tax advantages that will result from the currently proposed tax reform. Some may think the corporate world is getting rich, but there is so much more to it than that. The investors are making money. Jobs will be increasing and pay scales will go up to compensate for the demand of skilled workers. This appears to be a beginning of a bullish business cycle. If that is the case, the proposed tax reform will boost the economy and subsequently, government tax receipts. In a good business cycle, real estate will perform equally as well.

In the midst of all this doom and gloom due to the significant reduction of the MID benefit, there appears to be a silver lining. Tax reform looks like it will provide a large boost to the economy which will benefit all; businesses, individuals, the national debt, and of course, real estate. For the same reasons the sky might be falling, it is likely to be the change that provides a big boost to the nation by putting the money in the pockets of the people that drive the economy and want to improve their standard of living and buy an entry level home or to move up in the world. This period of turmoil is looking like an opportunity to take advantage of start of a strong real estate market rather than a death blow to real estate.

RodneySmeester
RealtorⓇ
BRE # 01925202
ph; 805 453 6000

Now for the Santa Ynez Valley real estate: The November 29th caravan in Santa Ynez was a yawner. The holiday season tends to be a bit slow, but there were two properties worth mentioning. 2939 Quail Valley Road is a one acre property with considerable views and a pool. It has just come on the market and is listed at $949,000. The other property that I noticed was in Solvang on 264 3rd Street. At $675,000, this was a nice little 3 bedroom/3 bath charmer located close to the center of town.

For more information, please visit us at Central Coast Landmark Properties.

Real Estate? Tax Reform? ...And the Upcoming Holidays?

I could talk about the Santa Ynez real estate market continuously for the rest of my life, but the holiday season is upon us. Real estate has little to do with this time of year and it tends to naturally slow down a little, so I will limit my discussion on real estate. Two properties should be mentioned though. 1259 Deer Trail Lane is new on the market. It's a 4 bedroom/ 2 bath home on an oak studded acre with views for only $795,000 in Santa Ynez. It won't last long. The other property that needs to be mentioned is at 1145 Arroyo Mesa Road. It is a 62 acre property in the Ballard Canyon AVA listed at $2,395,000. It has a magnificent building site with a shared well, horse facilities including a 20 stall barn and two apartments. It was originally listed at $3,100,000. This could be a spectacular property with the proper vision.

Why is it that, typically, tax issues occupy the holiday season discussions? This year is no different. Tax reform is looming out there and it appears that it will likely happen. Nobody can tell us for sure what it will be, but it looks like congress will come up with something. I'll be surprised if it pleases anyone. If the proposed mortgage interest deduction limitations stay, this legislation will take away the purchase incentive for the entry level California homebuyer. How that influences the rest of the California market is a topic for discussion. Let's leave this topic for the month of December. We'll have plenty of time to discuss it then. For now, let's just enjoy Thanksgiving with our family and friends. Forget about our social concerns and issues for one moment. Be thankful for our blessings and enjoy one day without the weight of the world on our minds.


Happy Thanksgiving!




RodneySmeester
RealtorⓇ
BRE # 01925202
ph; 805 453 6000

For more information, please visit us at Central Coast Landmark Properties.

Still More Wanking About Tax Reform and Its Effect on California Real Estate

Real Estate in the Santa Ynez Valley has been cruising along for several years now. Recently, the Santa Ynez Valley appears to be doing a little better than the rest of the county. That isn't what I want to discuss here, today. The tax reform discussions are much more pertinent. There are two topics that concern me. The first concern is that the reforms will effect California real estate. The current tax reform package subtly eliminates the mortgage interest deduction. By increasing the standard deduction to $24,000 and limiting the mortgage deduction to interest on up to $500,000, the tax laws allow no financial benefit to claiming the mortgage interest deduction (MID) at current interest rates. The elimination of state and local tax deductions, medical deductions, and limiting property tax deductions provide little to no benefit to the MID and itemized deductions in general, especially when a $500,000 loan at 4% is only $20,000. If this is all a taxpayer has to itemize, the standard deduction is the better tax benefit. The MID is no longer an incentive to owning a home.

We might think that taking this deduction away will put a heavier tax burden on the wealthy, but this is not true. The wealthy will be somewhat effected, but currently MIDs are already limited to interest on $1.1M. People with jumbo loans of $5M can only deduct roughly 20% of their interest. With the proposed tax reform, that will change to roughly 10%. A couple buying an $800,000 first home in California, with a down payment of $160,000 will have a $640,000 loan with a $10,000 annual property tax payment. The annual interest at 4% is $25,600. The income deduction is limited to $20,000 so the total deductions would be $30,000. A benefit of $6,000 compared to the proposed standard deduction. With a marginal tax rate, the benefit is about $1,200. With today's taxes, the benefit would be a $23,600 income deduction. With the same marginal tax rate, the tax benefit is $4,720. The proposed tax reform cuts this benefit 75% to the people purchasing homes in the entry level range in the Santa Ynez Valley. Don't forget, this buyer just spent $160,000 as a down payment. The buyer gets a home but the mortgage and lack of tax benefit provide little motive to purchase. Modifying the MID as proposed will adversely effect people buying entry level homes in California much more noticeably than individuals buying more expensive homes.

My other gripe is with the term 'Tax Reform.' Congress is turning this into a big mess. The problem is that tax reform is too generic. All involved are focusing on their specific definitions and benefits rather than congress stating specific goals; like rate cuts, rate hikes, simplification, pay down national debt, or just redistribution of wealth. I wish politicians that are pushing this agenda would provide a clearer vision. Until then, the taxpayer is just going to feel screwed.

With all of this uncertainty, houses are still selling. If you've read my previous articles, you already know that I see this as an opportunity. We will get through these uncertain times. We do not know what is going to happen, but now (rather than later) is the best time to invest in real estate.

With that said, this week's caravan, November 14, 2017, had two homes that stood out to me. One just came on the market and the other, I'm surprised, is still on the market.

The new listing is at 402 Odense Street in Buellton. This 3 bed/2 bath home in Thumbelina Village is listed at $595,000. This 1,800 square foot home has a pool, solar panels, and it's just been remodeled. This house has much to offer for under $600,000.

The other home is 2826 Baseline Avenue in Santa Ynez. It's a wonderful country farmhouse ranch on just under 5 acres listed at $1,750,000. The home is a 2 bed/2 bath charmer with an office over the 2 car garage, and a manager's house on the other side of the property, separated by 4 paddocks, a 12 stall barn, and pastures. If you're looking for the Santa Ynez ranch life, this is looking good.

If you would like to get a free market analysis of what your home is worth or if you would like to see any of these homes, please contact me. It would be my pleasure.

For more information please visit us at Central Coast Landmark Properties.

Rodney Smeester
Realtor ®
BRE # 01925202

Ph: 805 453 6000