Wednesday, January 3, 2018

2017 Santa Ynez Valley Real Estate Market And What about 2018?

It's already 2018. Where did 2017 go? Before discussing the forecast for Santa Ynez Valley (SYV) real estate in 2018, let's take a look at the real estate market results at for the Valley in 2017. The month of December performed well, the 4th quarter performed well, and it was a good year for SYV real estate. The market should stay on course barring any global catastrophes.

In December, sales of single family residences in the SYV increased to 23 units sold from 16 units sold in December 2016, up 43.8%. The median price increased 6.7% from $740,540 to $790,000 while the average sales price increased 6.5% from $843,072 to $898,256. As a further sign of strength, the average days on the market (DOM) decreased significantly, from 238 days to 81 days, down 66%. Not only were sale and prices up, homes were selling quicker than the previous December.

In the 4th quarter, sales in the Valley increased from 65units in 2016 to 75 units in 2017, up 15.4%. The median price increased 11.4% from $660,000 to $735,000 while the average sales price increased 11.0% from $841,039 to $933,638. The DOM confirmed the broad market strength in the SYV market during this time period. The DOM had similar improvement with a decrease from 155 days to 105 days, down 32.3%.

SYV Association of Realtors recorded 328 single family residences
sold in 2017 compared to 289 units sold in 2016, an increase of 13.5%. The SYV median price in 2017 was up 6.2% from 2016. It increased from $697,000 to $740,500. The average sales price for the year was up 3.8% from $992,763 in 2016 to $1,030,296 in 2017. The DOM decreased 5.9% in 2017 from 153 days in 2016 to 144 days .

December, the 4th quarter, and the year; all of these time periods reported positive numbers in each category. It was a very healthy year for Santa Ynez Valley real estate. According to the California Association of Realtors (CAR) prediction for California, dated October 12, 2017; sales were going to end the year up 1.3% and the median sales price was going to end being up 7.2%. The SYV did better in sales, up 13.5%. and was reasonably close on median price, up 6.2%. The 12% difference in sales may appear extreme but is an acceptable variation in a small market as is the Valley.  The SYV 2017 real estate market performed comparably with the rest of the California real estate market.

CAR also provided their forecast for 2018 in October 2017. CAR forecasted that the state's existing home sales would be up 1.0% and that the median price will increase by 4.2% in 2018. The Santa Ynez Valley should see similar numbers, but this forecast did not account for the Federal tax reform that was passed in December 2017. Most taxpayers are concerned how this reform is going to effect their pocketbook. The limitations on the mortgage interest deduction, the state tax deduction, and property tax deduction are not going to be a large enough burden to stop a robust economy as the mortgage meltdown did back in 2007. Current economic indicators and the recent performance of the stock market suggest that America is in a robust economic period. If any forecasts need adjusting, CAR may need to adjust their numbers upward, not downward. 2017 was a good year for the Santa Ynez Valley real estate market and 2018 appears to have economic factors that will create more growth, similar to 2017.

Happy New Year,

Rodney Smeester
BRE # 01925202
805 453-6000

There have been no caravans for the past two weeks. Next week will get back to the regular caravan schedule. In the mean time, please contact me if you have any questions, if you would like to see any homes, or if you would like to receive a free market analysis of your home.

For more information, please visit us at Central Coast Landmark Properties.

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